By Paul Krugman
So we’ll be hearing from the Eurogroup soon; word is that there will be a deal, which will either be a big defeat or a big win for Tsipras. Huh? Here’s why I think there may be confusion.
Unless I totally misread the situation, there’s no way Greece will get a formal acknowledgment that the terms of austerity must be permanently eased. Too soon, not enough homework done. Instead, a Greek win consists of an extension of the loan agreement that resets the ticking clock without locking in huge primary surpluses as the target. A German win would be Greece folding, and agreeing to the previous plan in return for cash.
The thing is, a Greek win along these lines could easily be misread as a German win — the language would suggest continuity, and you’d have to read very carefully to see what Greece did or didn’t agree to.
We should see in a few minutes.